Risk methodology

A usable signal. Not someone else’s verdict.

AI does not replace the funder’s credit policy. It structures thin-file evidence, estimates a probability of performance and delivers reason codes a Risk team can defend.

Principle

The deliverable exists so your analysis is more accurate.

In unbanked populations the problem is not absence of risk: it is absence of a file. We work so underwriting starts higher up the stack — less noise, fewer gaps, less manual reconstruction.

Policy overlay

The signal enters as a layer on your eligibility framework. You set the weight and the cut-off.

Pre-screen

Knock-outs and an eligibility band before analyst or bureau capacity is consumed.

Challenger

Disciplined comparison against your live scorecard once vintages allow it.

Vectors

Four dimensions, one synthetic signal.

We do not publish features or weights. We do declare the conceptual family a credit committee recognises.

Verifiability

Subject consistency and file quality. Without usable identity there is no origination.

Roots

Territorial stability and lower operational flight incentive. A discipline proxy, not a real guarantee.

Productive capacity

Value-generation patterns. Attested activity, not banked cash flow alone.

Observed commitment

Punctuality on micro-obligations. Evidence of willingness-to-pay, not an income statement.

Analytical cycle

Understand, estimate, contrast and recalibrate.

Supervised machine learning on performance outcomes. The institution’s hard rules always sit above the model.

Understand

Segmenting informality

We do not force a single score. Rooted rural context is not read like high urban mobility. Clustering before estimation.

Estimate

Probability of performance

Supervised models estimate P(C) / a working PD from consistency and conduct. The output is a trajectory, not a snapshot. It is not an IRB rating or a loss promise.

Contrast

Hard rules + appetite

The estimate is crossed with the institution’s exclusions, ticket and threshold. Puelo Cloud delivers the file. The institution decides.

Recalibrate

Vintages and drivers

With live outcomes we ask what drove performance: capacity, commitment or shock. Champion–challenger when the sample allows it.

Risk pack

What the institution receives.

A standard package, with an origination log and minimised PII. Ready for policy. Not a sales lead.

Typical contents

Risk band. High-level reason codes. Eligibility flags (proceed / stop / review). Non-binding product-fit suggestion. Log of consents and rules applied.

Explainability

Every pre-qualification carries reasons defensible before Model Audit and before the desk analyst. AI prioritises; it does not hide.

Governance

Data minimisation. Consent. Human-in-the-loop in the grey band.

Deep identity remains encapsulated. The marketplace operates on an anonymised profile and synthetic risk variables. Model detail is discussed under NDA, not on a landing page.